Anchor Progression Value (APV): A New Metric for Playing Forward Under Pressure
Spotlighting the Deep Midfielders Who Break Lines When It Matters
Introduction
One of the most important qualities I look for in a central midfielder is their ability to play forward under pressure. It’s a trait that separates safe passers from true press-resistant players, the kind who can turn and progress play when it matters, those clips of Verratti beating the press and playing it forward or Iniesta running from midfield and assisting Neymar against PSG these live rent free in my head.
That’s the problem I kept running into. You watch a game and see a midfielder under pressure, they turn, they thread a line-breaking pass but then you check the stats and all you get is “92% pass completion.” Cool, but what did that actually do?
So I decided to dig deeper.
This week, I built something new: Anchor Progression Value (APV), a metric that tries to quantify what we often just “feel” when watching the game. Who’s actually moving the team forward? Who’s brave on the ball when things get tight?
It’s not perfect, this is version 1, after all but it’s already revealing some names that make you nod... and a few that make you double-check.
Let’s dive into the methodology, the Premier League results so far, and maybe even rethink how we talk about deep progression
Methodology: How Anchor Progression Value (APV) Works
For this project, I used StatsBomb event data from the 2025/26 Premier League season, zeroing in on one very specific thing: deep midfield progression under pressure. The kind of actions that start way back but move your team forward even when things are tight.
The goal? To highlight central midfielders (DM/CM) who consistently progress play from deep zones, especially when pressed. And not just count their actions, value them.
What Actually Counts as “Progression”?
To even be considered, an action needs to check a few boxes:
Start before the final third (x < 80 on a 0–120 StatsBomb pitch)
Be a Pass, Carry, or Dribble
Come from a DM/CM role (attacking mids are excluded here)
Gain at least 4 meters forward
And ideally, be under pressure (those get more weight)
And here’s the thing: sideways and backward passes don’t count, even if the player is being pressed. This isn’t a recycling metric, it’s about pushing play forward.
How Scoring Works
Each action is scored based on:
How much forward ground it gains
How central the endpoint is (centrality matters)
Whether it leads to something meaningful, a shot, a final-third reception
And yes, there are penalties for actions that go backward under pressure or lead to turnovers
If you’re brave and it works? You’re rewarded.
If you’re brave and it fails? There’s a cost and I think that’s fair.
Each progressive action is scored using multiple components:
Why I Care About Per-Action Scoring
Most stats use per 90 metrics and that’s fine, but let’s be honest: they reward volume, not necessarily impact.
With APV, I wanted to do something different: score every action individually. That way, we surface players who:
Take fewer actions but make them count
Break pressure, not just survive it
Move the ball forward into real danger zones
Yes, sometimes this means a player ends up with a negative score and that’s okay. It doesn’t mean they’re bad. It just means their deep progression didn’t have much net value (or maybe even cost their team).
My Biases (Because They Matter)
This is version 1 of APV and like any model, it reflects some of my own footballing values:
Passes into central zones > wide ones
Actions leading into the final third > raw volume
Staying on the ball under pressure > losing it under stress
It’s not perfect, and I’m not pretending it is. But I’m happy with how it reflects the type of midfielder I value and I’m very open to feedback or improvements.
APV Top Performers in the Premier League: Who Stood Out?
After running the numbers with the Anchor Progression Value (APV) metric on this season’s Premier League event data and filtering out anyone under 400 minutes, I got a list that honestly surprised me.
Some names? Totally expected. No shock there.
Others? Let’s just say I did a double take.
This is the kind of list that makes you want to rewatch games, dig into the tape, and see the subtle things players are doing to push their team forward when the pressure’s on.
The Standouts: Who’s Really Breaking Pressure?
Honestly, a mix of the usual suspects and some “wait, really?” moments.
Let’s walk through the names that made me pause, nod, or double-take.
Top of the List: Ibrahim Sangaré
I’ll be real, Sangaré being first surprised me. Not because I doubt his quality, but because I didn’t expect the numbers to back it up so emphatically.
It turns out, he’s doing exactly what this metric is designed to reward, playing forward from deep, under pressure, and doing it consistently. Forest fans probably already knew this, especially with how strong he’s been over the last couple of months. For me, he’s firmly in the “watch more closely” category now.
Declan Rice: No Surprise, All Class
This one makes total sense. Rice has been a rock for Arsenal. You can picture him now, receiving under pressure, drifting centrally, switching play, linking up. It’s all there.
His APV score reflects the full picture: not just safety, but progression. And it’s also a testament to how Arteta has unlocked more from him. Remember when some doubted his progressive value? That conversation’s over.
Szoboszlai’s Surge
Dominik Szoboszlai being this high just confirms the eye test. He’s been driving Liverpool forward, both literally and metaphorically.
What makes it even more impressive? A good chunk of his minutes came at right-back. Imagine what his numbers would look like with a full season purely in midfield. He’s a machine.
Zubimendi: Right Player, Right Time
When Arsenal were linked with Martín Zubimendi, I wasn’t fully convinced. Now? It all clicks.
With Partey in and out and Jorginho not always available, Zubimendi stepped in and made the midfield look seamless. He controls games, resists pressure, and links brilliantly with Rice. This ranking just confirms he was the right call.
Curtis Jones: Every Time You Doubt Him...
Curtis Jones is one of those players Liverpool fans often think is done, then he comes right back into the picture.
This season, amidst chaos, he’s stepped up. His actions under pressure have real intent. He doesn’t just survive it, he breaks it. Quietly, he’s become essential.
Ryan “Half Turn” Gravenberch
Gravenberch’s nickname writes itself. He loves receiving on the half-turn and escaping tight spots.
Not surprised to see him her, maybe just a little lower than I’d have guessed. As a 6, he’s still raw defensively, but on the ball? He’s constantly trying to unlock defenses, especially under pressure. Love watching him evolve.
Tyler Adams: Engine Room for Bournemouth
Adams has been brilliant. Bournemouth losing him to injury was a real blow.
But before that, his ability to receive and move forward, even when pressed, stood out. I’ve been tracking him since Leeds, and his APV score just backs up what the eye sees. A proper engine.
Andrey Santos: Limited Minutes, Big Impression
Did not expect to see Andrey Santos pop up. He hasn’t played a ton, but what little time he’s had, he’s made it count.
That’s the beauty of per-action metrics. Even in limited samples, if the quality’s there, it shows. Definitely worth more attention going forward.
Reijnders Keeps Driving
Tijjani Reijnders started the season flying. He’s cooled off slightly, but you still see it: the carrying, the entries into dangerous zones, the box presence.
He was already standing out via BOXIQ metrics, and APV just adds another layer. Very modern midfielder.
Sander Berg: Quietly Effective
Berge has always flown under the radar, but he’s quietly putting together a very progressive season.
It’s not flashy, but he keeps pushing the ball forward under pressure. Norway’s World Cup hopes might rest on players like him. The metric sees what the highlights might not.
So... Who Surprised Me?
Curtis Jones — Wasn’t expecting him to rank this high, but the data speaks for itself. He’s delivering under pressure.
Sander Berge — Always tidy, but this shows just how forward-thinking he’s been.
Who I Expected But Didn’t See
Two players I really thought would show up:
Adam Wharton
Bruno Guimarães
Could be role, could be sample, or just variance. That’s part of the process — it’s Version 1, and metrics can miss context. Still, it makes you think about the different ways players contribute.
Who stood out to you?
Anyone missing you think deserves a second look?
This is a work in progress and I’d love to hear your takes.
Conclusion: Rethinking Progression Under Pressure
The Anchor Progression Value (APV) metric is still in its infancy but even at Version 1, it’s already painting a clearer picture of who’s really moving the game forward from deep under pressure.
It’s not just about tidy passing. APV highlights intent. It asks: who’s breaking lines? Who’s helping their team escape the press? Who’s not just surviving but progressing?
Of course, names like Rice, Gravenberch and Szoboszlai showed up, no surprise there. But it also pulled up less-hyped profiles like Sangaré, Santos, and Berge. Players who don’t always dominate the headlines but clearly play with purpose when it counts.
This metric isn’t here to replace the eye test or scouting, far from it. It’s a tool. A different lens to catch the stuff that slips through the cracks of traditional stats. It rewards risk, impact, and forward-thinking decisions.
There’s still work to do. I want to fine-tune the weights, better handle roles, maybe even layer in some context about game state or opponent strength. But the core idea stands: playing forward under pressure is a skill worth measuring.
If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading. I’d love to hear your thoughts. Who stood out? Who was missing? What would you tweak?
Let’s keep pushing the conversation and the game forward.
Enjoy the content, and I'll see you on the dugout!
Would be interesting to see where Lavia ranks, provided he can keep himself fit :/