Can PSG Really Replace Mbappé?
Exploring Data-Driven Options and Strategic Alternatives for Kylian Mbappé
Introduction:
The saga of Kylian Mbappé is finally over. One of the best players in the world is leaving PSG for free—a huge blow for the club. But can PSG really replace Mbappé? Is it truly the end of the world for them? As a data enthusiast, I decided to dive into this problem using data analytics.
Methodology Overview:
I used the same approach as last summer’s series, adding the 2023-24 data for a more comprehensive analysis. I followed two methods:
Aggregated Data: I combined Mbappé’s data from the last four seasons and compared it with other forwards' aggregated data to identify consistent performers.
Single Season Data: I compared Mbappé’s 2023-24 season stats with other forwards' data from this season.
The data was scraped from FBRef, consolidating various aspects of each player’s game into a single dataset.
Findings :
1st Approach: Aggregated Last 4 Seasons
Using PCA and cosine similarity, I found the following:
As expected, elite players dominate the list. Given Mbappé's status as one of the top three players in the world, a direct Moneyball replacement is unlikely. Sterling could be an option due to Chelsea’s need to sell, but his wages are high. If PSG wants to make a significant investment, Rafael Leão stands out. On his day, he’s a top 5 player in his position, though he would come at a high cost..
2nd Approach: 2023-24 Season Data
Focusing on Mbappé’s latest season stats where he played primarily as a left-wing striker, the findings were:
Serhou Guirassy could be a budget option due to his release clause and lower wages, but PSG might not need a number 9. Leroy Sané, with one year left on his contract, is another possibility, though his wages are steep. Again, Leão appears as a strong candidate if PSG decides to invest heavily.
Conclusion :
Replacing Mbappé with a single player is nearly impossible, especially given his stature. Even if PSG acquires someone like Leão, his output may not match Mbappé’s, potentially leaving the team short on goals.
My recommendation would be to distribute Mbappé’s substantial salary savings across other positions to maintain team balance. PSG is known for producing talent but often loses it. Investing in their academy and other crucial positions, like defense and goalkeeper, could be more beneficial. Donnarumma is excellent, but his foot play is a concern for Enrique's system. PSG already has a strong attacking lineup with Barcola, who is personally my favorite for his fearless wing play, Dembele known for his directness, and Ramos and Muani as solid options for center forward.
PSG’s recent problems haven’t been scoring goals but preventing them. Investing in a solid defender or a goalkeeper more suited to Enrique’s style could be the key to their future success.
Code and Implementation:
For those interested in the technical details, you can find the complete code for this project on my GitHub repository: Moneyball for Football: A Data Science Approach for Recruiting Players.
The code includes:
Data collection and aggregation scripts
Normalization procedures
PCA implementation
Cosine similarity calculation
Call to Action:
If you're interested in football analytics or data science, I encourage you to check out the full project on GitHub. Feel free to experiment with the code, apply it to your favorite players/ player leaving your favorite team, and share your findings. Let's continue to push the boundaries of football analysis together!
Enjoy the content, and I'll see you on the dugout!