Fixing Manchester City: A Data-Driven Blueprint for Recovery
How data analytics can help Manchester City overcome injuries and salvage their season
Introduction
Manchester City’s struggles this season have been no secret. A number of injuries has left the team unable to find its usual rhythm, sparking debates among fans and pundits alike. While some suggest Pep Guardiola should reinvent his tactics, we know that pragmatism isn’t his style—and let’s face it, once the injured stars return, City will likely regain their flow.
But what about the here and now? In this post, I’ll outline a data-driven quick fix to help City navigate this turbulent season and secure a top-four finish. Beyond that, we’ll also take a forward-thinking approach, leveraging our usual Moneyball methodology to identify key areas for squad rejuvenation.
Let’s dive into the numbers and uncover the solutions.
How I Approached Fixing Man City
When looking to "fix" Man City, I focused in on a few key problem areas—starting with the glaring issue revolving around the Spanish elephant in the room, Rodri. Fresh off a Ballon d’Or-worthy season, Rodri's absence this year has left a massive void in midfield. With him out, I felt City has two options:
Plan for the future by investing in a younger midfielder who can excel either as a holding midfielder or a versatile box-to-box "8," ensuring a smooth transition for the years to come (since Rodri, at 28, still has several years left at the top level).
Bring in an experienced holding midfielder who can seamlessly do the job until Rodri returns to full fitness.
The next pressing issue was the right-back position. Kyle Walker, a player I greatly admire for the stability he brings to the team, has fallen well below his usual standards this season. I looked for someone who could offer a similar profile—capable of inverting, overlapping, and contributing to central defense when required.
Another concern is John Stones. While undeniably a fantastic player, his recurring injuries have made him unreliable. At this point in his career, as he starts to age, City might have to consider moving on from him and finding a more durable option to bolster their defense.
Finally, Kevin De Bruyne—a name synonymous with brilliance in the Premier League over the past decade—has been hampered by injuries this season. It’s clear that City must start identifying a suitable replacement for him. While replicating KDB's genius is almost impossible, finding someone who can bring similar creativity, vision, and influence to the midfield is essential for City’s long-term success.
With these considerations in mind, my approach focused on addressing these pivotal areas—providing both immediate fixes and future-proofing solutions for Pep’s side. Let’s explore the options in detail.
Results
1- Kyle Walker’s Replacement
Kyle Walker has been an exceptional servant to Manchester City. What he has brought to the team in terms of stability, energy, and sheer athleticism has often been overlooked—even by some City fans. His ability to rise to the occasion, constantly competing at the highest level and eventually cementing his place in the team, is a testament to his resilience and character.
Moreover, Walker’s performances on the biggest stages, both for City and for England, reflect his consistency and professionalism over the years. Few players can say they've been as dependable as Walker in high-pressure scenarios, and his success at both club and international levels is proof of his enduring quality.
That’s why it’s hard to see him struggle this season. As someone who has admired him for years, it’s disheartening to watch time begin to catch up with a player who has been such a crucial part of City’s success. However, as Jamie Carragher often says, “It’s better to leave football before football leaves you.”
For Walker, this might be the right moment to move on. Not as a reflection of failure, but as a recognition of his incredible contributions to the club and the game—and to ensure his legacy remains intact. It’s a tough call, but perhaps the best one for both Walker and City as they look to the future.
After analyzing data from the last four seasons, here are the players who closely match Kyle Walker's profile:
Some notable names emerged during the analysis, along with some left-footed profiles not suited for this role. Di Lorenzo is an intriguing option, but Napoli’s captain is unlikely to leave under Conte, especially as they aim for another Scudetto. His age profile also doesn’t align with City’s needs. Benjamin Pavard is another excellent fit, but Inter wouldn’t part with him cheaply. A real hidden gem, however, is Stefan Posch from Bologna. Posch has delivered outstanding performances in Serie A and the Champions League, and his physical attributes make him well-suited for the Premier League. Playing under Thiago Motta and now under Italiano, he’s adapted to overlapping and inverting into midfield, and after a solid Euros with Austria under Ragnick, he’s a profile that deserves serious attention.
Stefan Posch stands out as a versatile player capable of performing multiple roles on the pitch. Having been coached by three exceptional managers—Thiago Motta, Vincenzo Italiano and Ralf Rangnick with the Austrian national team—Posch has elevated his game significantly under their guidance. This well-rounded development makes him, in my view, the perfect candidate for the role Man City needs to fill.
2- John Stones’ Replacement
John Stones, a player who has been plagued by injuries, remains a rare and invaluable profile in modern football. He has been a pioneer for English football's evolution from direct, long-ball play to a more controlled, possession-based style. It's no coincidence that Stones was a consistent presence during the best era of English football on the international stage, making those around him look better in the process.
While his journey wasn’t always smooth—his first season was marked by turbulence and mistakes—his personality and courage ultimately shone through. From those early struggles to the historic treble season, where Stones operated as a hybrid right-back and central midfielder alongside Rodri, channeling a prime Sergio Busquets, his transformation is a testament to his work ethic and Pep Guardiola's influence.
However, the ongoing challenge of keeping Stones fit for a full season highlights the need for City to start planning for a suitable replacement. His unique profile is something the team relies heavily on, making the search for a successor critical to maintaining their style and structure.
I initially analyzed John Stones' performances over the last four seasons to identify potential replacements. However, I soon realized it would be more insightful to focus on his treble-winning season—arguably his best ever. Here are the standout numbers from that campaign
After breaking down Stones' treble season numbers and comparing them to current players, here are the profiles that stand out as potential replacements:
For me, it’s a no-brainer—City should prioritize Jonathan Tah. A free agent at the end of the season, he’s had an excellent spell under Xabi Alonso, who is somewhat of a Pep disciple and likely familiar with similar tactical concepts. His physical profile is perfectly suited for the Premier League as well. While it might prove challenging to lure him in January—given he’s Leverkusen’s captain and they’ll want him for a strong Champions League campaign—it’s a move worth planning for in the summer, especially with the World Cup on the horizon. Tah would be a smart long-term investment for City.
A rock at the back, calm on the ball, and an aggressive defender—Jonathan Tah ticks all the boxes for what Pep Guardiola would look for in a defender, doesn’t he?
3- De Bruyne’s Replacement
What can you say about Kevin De Bruyne? Calling him the best midfielder to ever play in the Premier League isn’t a stretch—it’s a testament to his brilliance. Everyone who loves football admires De Bruyne and his elegant, game-defining style of play. What’s even more remarkable is how he evolved from a quiet, shy youngster into a true leader on and off the pitch. It’s heartbreaking that injuries have denied him the chance to break the record for most assists in a single season and, perhaps, to showcase his greatness even more. Still, his legacy is firmly cemented as one of football’s all-time greats.
When I saw these numbers, I couldn’t help but think, "Ooof, can my algorithm even come up with a worthy suggestion?" These are elite stats—off the charts. But after plugging these numbers in and running the analysis to find suitable replacements, here’s what I discovered:
Another no-brainer popped into my mind, and yes, I might have a bit of Serie A bias, but I’ve been a big admirer of Lorenzo Pellegrini for some time. Considering his current situation at AS Roma—with tensions involving fans and the media—and the fact that his contract runs until 2026, this might be a golden opportunity for a top team to swoop in. Pellegrini’s versatility in midfield is incredible; when Dybala arrived, I initially worried for him, but he adapted his game brilliantly to complement Dybala’s style. While he’s Roma through and through, opportunities like this don’t come around often, and City would be wise to keep an eye on him.
A player capable of excelling in any midfield role, with impeccable touch, exceptional vision, and disciplined off-the-ball work—what more could you possibly ask for? A true manager’s dream and a perfect fit for any top-level side.
4- Rodri’s Replacement
What can you say about Rodri? The Ballon d’Or debate may have sparked criticism—with many feeling that Vinicius deserved it—and I can understand those arguments. Carvajal, too, was overlooked in the conversation. For me, it could have gone either way between Vinicius and Rodri. However, Rodri’s case is undeniable. From the moment he arrived at Manchester City, his evolution has been nothing short of extraordinary. From his composure in the midfield to scoring that clutch goal that secured the Champions League, his impact has been immense. Even on the international stage, his presence has ensured Spain hasn't felt the absence of Busquets.
Unfortunately, Rodri’s injury has created a gaping void in the midfield—a challenge City must address urgently. To navigate this, I propose two approaches: one, to find a quick, experienced fix who can stabilize the midfield for the rest of the season, or two, to invest in a young talent who can operate as a 6 while also offering versatility in other areas of the pitch. The right solution will depend on City’s long-term plans and immediate needs, but a move must be made to ensure stability in such a critical area.
Looking at these numbers, I couldn’t help but have the same reaction as when I saw De Bruyne’s stats—just, Oooof. It’s no wonder Man City dominates the Premier League every year with players performing at this level, and it’s equally no surprise that their absence would cause a dip. These are generational talents who set the bar so high that replacing them feels like an impossible task.
But now, taking these numbers into account, let’s dive into the data and see who could be suitable replacements for Rodri’s unique skill set:
4-1 : Long Term Solution
Based on the numbers, the standout name is Bruno Guimarães, and he’s my top solution for the long term. Yes, he would cost a fortune, but the investment would be worth it. The beauty of Guimarães is that he wouldn’t just coexist with Rodri—he would thrive alongside him. His arrival in January could be the fix Man City needs to secure a top-four finish, and in the future, his partnership with Rodri could become the backbone of the midfield.
A special shout-out, however, goes to Nicolò Rovella. Remember, he was my pick to replace Kroos—a true gem who is now leading Lazio’s midfield and slowly earning his spot in the Italian national team. While Rovella is a brilliant talent, Bruno Guimarães is simply on another level. His versatility, especially his ability to excel as an 8 this season, makes him a more secure option for the future. With Rodri by his side, I’m confident he would elevate City’s midfield to new heights.
Believe me, even after looking at Rodri’s incredible numbers, Bruno Guimarães' stats are equally impressive. The fact that he’s thrived in another team with a completely distinct style of play is a testament to his adaptability and quality. I’ve been particularly impressed by how many times he’s taken control of games single-handedly, dictating the tempo with remarkable composure. His adaptation to a new role alongside Tonali who plays as a 6 while Bruno pushes forward this season is another excellent sign of his versatility and football IQ.
While this move might not fit the typical Moneyball philosophy, for the long run, Bruno to City simply makes too much sense. He’s the type of player who could seamlessly elevate City’s midfield, ensuring they remain dominant for years to come. They should absolutely target him.
4-2 : Quick Fix
Looking back at the numbers, there are some experienced players who could step in and do the job. Højbjerg is a solid shout—he's defensively strong and could bring stability to the midfield. However, I don’t believe he possesses the elite ability to control possession to the level required for Pep’s style. That said, my pick is a hidden gem who has been flying under the radar but is finally earning recognition in the Champions League with Lille: Benjamin André.
André has been on my radar for a while now, consistently popping up as a suitable replacement when searching for physical midfielders. His skill set, work ethic, and adaptability make him an intriguing option, particularly for the short term. A reliable and experienced pick, André could be the quick fix City needs to navigate this challenging season effectively.
A midfield maestro capable of controlling the tempo of the game, leading both the midfield and the team, with the physical stature to thrive in the Premier League—Benjamin André is an overlooked gem who ticks all the boxes. If you're looking for a quick fix to replace Rodri and secure a top-four finish, André is a no-brainer.
My Ideal Line Up for Man City
The Quick Fix for Manchester City
This quick fix lineup for Man City offers an exciting balance of intensity, physicality, and control, perfectly tailored for the Premier League and Pep Guardiola’s demanding tactical setup. By utilizing a 4-1-4-1 shape, the team can efficiently occupy spaces in the half and final third, with the holding midfielder (André) providing stability and orchestrating transitions.
Key tactical highlights:
Dynamic Fullback Play: Posch’s overlapping runs add width and unpredictability, creating overloads on the flanks while maintaining defensive solidity when transitioning back.
Midfield Versatility: Pellegrini brings creativity and forward runs, complemented by Bernardo Silva’s technical mastery and energy. André’s disciplined presence allows freedom for the attacking five while controlling possession from deep.
Physical and Tactical Solidity in Defense: Tah’s commanding presence alongside Ruben Dias and Gvardiol ensures aerial strength and defensive control, critical for handling high-intensity Premier League fixtures.
With this setup, Man City can aim for a top-four finish while making strides in the Champions League and FA Cup campaigns. More importantly, this approach allows Rodri the essential rest he needs to recover fully and return to his peak level.
The Rejuvenation Process: Building for the Long Term
This lineup represents a balanced approach to addressing Manchester City’s current challenges while preparing for sustained success in the future. With Bruno Guimarães taking charge of the midfield in Rodri’s absence, the team regains its ability to control the tempo. When Rodri returns, Guimarães can seamlessly transition into an advanced role, adding further dynamism to the midfield alongside Pellegrini, whose creativity and versatility shine both centrally and out wide.
The inclusion of Savinho and Foden on the flanks introduces pace, flair, and technical brilliance, key to reviving City’s attacking edge. Foden, in particular, should aim to replicate the form that earned him PFA Player of the Season honors. Combined with the defensive solidity provided by Gvardiol, Tah, Ruben Dias, and Posch, this lineup is designed to ensure Manchester City not only weathers the injury crisis but also builds a strong foundation for future dominance.
Conclusion
The names and lineup proposed aim to address Manchester City’s current injury crisis while acknowledging the reality that replacing players like Kevin De Bruyne (who, despite being fit, is still prone to injury) and Rodri will inevitably lead to a temporary downgrade—they are simply a class apart. That said, the players suggested offer a balanced and pragmatic solution, giving City the best chance to stabilize their season.
The question now is: What do you think of the proposed names and lineups? Which approach resonates more with you—the quick fix to navigate this challenging period, or the long-term vision to rejuvenate the squad for sustained success?
Code and Implementation:
For those interested in the technical details, you can find the complete code for this project on my GitHub repository.
Call to Action:
If you're interested in football analytics or data science, I encourage you to check out the full project on GitHub. Feel free to experiment with the code, apply it to your favorite team or other struggling teams, and share your findings. Let's continue to push the boundaries of football analysis together!
Enjoy the content, and I'll see you on the dugout!
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