Raphinha 2.0: From Flashes to Ballon d'Or Contender
This analysis breaks down Raphinha’s 2024–25 explosion using metrics and visuals — showcasing his leap from raw potential to elite-level influence under Hansi Flick.
Introduction
Since joining Barcelona, Raphinha's journey has been anything but straightforward. From moments of magic to long stretches of inconsistency, many doubted whether he could ever follow in the footsteps of the club’s legendary wingers. But the arrival of Hansi Flick changed everything.
Flick, a manager renowned for unlocking the full potential of dynamic attackers, has helped shape a new version of Raphinha — one that’s more polished, more productive, and more mature. His numbers have improved, but perhaps more importantly, so has his presence. He’s become a vocal leader, a consistent performer, and a player Barça fans now trust in big moments.
This analysis dives deep into the data behind Raphinha’s evolution — and shows why he’s no longer just a promising winger, but a legitimate Ballon d'Or contender
Breaking Down Raphinha’s Rise to Elite Status
A Complete Attacking Profile (Figure 1)
Raphinha’s percentile radar against top-five league forwards and midfielders highlights just how complete his profile has become under Hansi Flick. With non-penalty xG and xAG both brushing the 99th percentile, he’s consistently creating and finishing high-quality chances. Combine that with his elite ranks in progressive passes received, progressive passing distance, and switches, and we’re looking at a player who is not just creative — but central to Barcelona’s ball circulation and attacking rhythm.
Among Europe's Best in Goal Creation (Figure 2)
Raphinha also ranks among the top 15 players in Europe for Goal Creating Actions per 90. This metric captures sequences that directly lead to goals — a tangible measure of attacking value. While players like Bukayo Saka and Désiré Doué top the chart, Raphinha’s presence on this list places him firmly in elite territory, proving he’s moved beyond flair to become a consistent final-third difference-maker.
Elite Dual-Threat Output (Figure 3)
In the xG vs xAG scatterplot, Raphinha emerges in a high-efficiency cluster with players like Dembélé and Barcola — those who can both finish and assist at a high rate. What separates Raphinha here is balance: he doesn’t just spike in one dimension of attack. Under Flick, he’s unlocked both scoring instincts and creative discipline, evolving into one of the few true dual-threat wide playmakers in Europe.
Similar Players – But a Refined Edge
To identify the players most stylistically similar to Raphinha, we used cosine similarity across a comprehensive suite of metrics — from chance creation and progressive carries to take-ons and passes into dangerous areas.
The chart above reveals the top 15 closest matches to Raphinha’s 2024–25 profile. At the top, we find:
Ousmane Dembélé – a 1v1 artist with ambidexterity and unpredictable flair.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Vinícius Júnior – direct, high-volume ball carriers who relentlessly pressure defensive lines.
Ademola Lookman and Rayan Cherki – bold creators, unafraid to take risks and drive play.
Christian Pulisic and Michael Olise – fluid playmakers who drift between central pockets and touchlines.
This group reflects the elite mold Raphinha now fits into. But what sets him apart is not just resemblance — it’s refinement. Where some still rely on instinct and chaos, Raphinha has evolved into a winger who balances creativity with control.
He once mirrored Dembélé’s raw explosiveness — now he’s added structure to his decision-making. He times his actions better, knows when to isolate, when to recycle, and when to create. His metrics don’t just align with the elite — they suggest a player who's shaping his own version of that archetype.
This similarity chart doesn’t just tell us who plays like Raphinha. It highlights how far he’s come — and why he's beginning to define, not just follow, the mold.
Conclusion
Raphinha has evolved. Once a unpredictable winger defined by flashes of brilliance and inconsistency, he’s now one of the most complete and dependable wide players in Europe. Under Hansi Flick, his confidence, leadership, and tactical role have undergone a transformation. No longer a secondary option — he’s a cornerstone of Barcelona’s attack.
This shift is backed by data: Raphinha ranks in the 99th percentile for both non-penalty xG and xAG, showcasing his rare blend of goal threat and creative output. His inclusion in the top 15 for Goal Creating Actions per 90 further underlines his consistency in delivering end product. And when we compare stylistic profiles, he mirrors the very best — from Dembélé to Vinícius Júnior — but with added poise and maturity.
Most importantly, this isn't just statistical noise — it’s translating into silverware. A potential treble-winning season with Barcelona paired with this level of individual output is exactly the kind of resume that makes a Ballon d'Or case.
Two years ago, few would have imagined this trajectory. Today, Raphinha isn't chasing the elite — he's becoming one of them.