Revitalizing Napoli: A Data-Driven Blueprint for the 2024/25 Season
Strategic Insights and Player Analysis to Strengthen Napoli's Squad for the Upcoming Campaign.
Introduction
What happened to Napoli? Once the biggest challenger to Juventus and finally Scudetto winners in 2023 after 33 years, Napoli seemed poised for continued success. However, the following season saw a dramatic downturn, marking perhaps the worst title defense in history.
Napoli’s president tried to stabilize the ship by bringing in Antonio Conte, a top manager, along with Lukaku, Buongiorno, and Davide Neres. Here, we’ll imagine a scenario where we will address Napoli’s issues before signing Lukaku and other areas I feel need addressing using the Moneyball Approach as usual.
How I Approached Fixing Napoli
Buongiorno and Neres are solid signings, fitting well into Conte's likely 3-4-3 formation. However, I have concerns about Lukaku, given his age, the cost, and his underwhelming recent Serie A seasons with Inter and Roma. I proposed an alternative based on Lukaku's stellar 2020-21 season data, comparing it with players from 2023-24. I also sought a replacement for Zielinski using his 2022-23 data, considering Conte might shift to a 3-5-2. Lastly, I explored right wing-back options, suggesting Achraf Hakimi as the ideal fit, leveraging his 2020-21 and 2023-24 data.
Finally, I’ll share my ideal lineups and the reasoning behind each choice. Let’s dive into the data.
Results
1- Right Full Back : Hakimi’s Alternative
In Conte’s first season at Inter, the wings, particularly the right, were a noticeable weak point. After finishing just one point behind Juventus at the top, Conte famously remarked, "Second place is the first loser," reflecting his winning mentality.
Inter's signing of Hakimi and the return of Perisic revolutionized their wings, leading to their first Scudetto in years, the next season. Recognizing the importance of strong wing play in Conte's system, I assessed Napoli's current options. While Spinazzola is a good player, I believe he's past his prime and better suited as a left wing-back. Napoli lacks a dynamic right wing-back, making Di Lorenzo unsuitable for the role.
I initially analyzed Hakimi’s Inter season data, but eventually focused on his 2023-24 stats, where he evolved into a complete package under Luis Enrique, to identify the best replacement for Napoli.
Hakimi's numbers speak for themselves, and they can still get better.
I don't need to elaborate on why Hakimi's stats make him an obvious choice. After comparing his numbers with players from the 2023-24 season, here's what I found:
After filtering out left-backs, the most logical choice that stood out to me was Silvan Widmer. Once a Serie A veteran who flew under the radar, his recent performances and numbers are impressive and suggest he'd be an excellent fit.
Familiar with a back three, he’s an ideal candidate who could seamlessly adapt and significantly strengthen any Serie A team needing a reliable wing-back.
2- Central Midfield: Zieliński’s Alternative
Losing Zieliński on a free transfer is a significant blow for any team, especially one like Napoli, coming off a disappointing season. With Conte likely to favor a 3-4-3 formation based on recent signings, I believe adding an extra midfielder could offer greater flexibility. Shifting to a 3-5-2 could enhance creativity and control in the midfield, and in my view, the 3-5-2 is superior to the 3-4-3 in many aspects.
I used Zieliński’s best season as a benchmark to identify a suitable replacement. After analyzing the numbers, here’s what I found :
Top players emerged as expected, but Sergi Darder stands out as a hidden gem. While he might not match Zieliński’s output, his carrying ability and creativity are impressive. Given Napoli's initial 3-4-3 setup, Darder fits the bill as a solid Plan B. Imagine Napoli trailing, and Conte brings in Darder to add creativity and control—he could be a game-changer.
Adding Sergi Darder to any Serie A midfield would be a significant boost. His Spanish flair and creative vision could give an Italian team a distinct advantage. For me, this is a no-brainer—Darder’s style and skills make him an ideal fit for Serie A, offering a unique blend of creativity and control.
3- Center-Forward : peak Lukaku’s Alternative
I have to wonder about Conte's fixation with Lukaku. Sure, it made sense in 2019 when Lukaku was in his prime, but now in 2024, this deal feels questionable. I'm not dismissing Lukaku's impact—Serie A suits him, and he still has the physical edge—but at 31 years old with two underwhelming seasons, paying €30 million seems risky. While he might surprise us and have a few top-level seasons left, a younger version of Lukaku would have been a more logical investment. That's what I'm looking to find.
Using Lukaku's best season as a benchmark, I searched for a suitable striker for Napoli, especially with Osimhen likely leaving. Here's what I found:
This was a tough decision, and while I’m a fan of Jonathan David, I believe he’s a strong option, especially with just one year left on his contract. However, I’m leaning towards Boniface as the better fit for Napoli under Antonio Conte. Boniface is a striker with immense potential, and even though it might stretch Napoli’s budget, investing in one of Europe’s hottest prospects makes sense, especially since other positions will be filled with more undervalued, experienced players. With Napoli already committing €30 million, adding another €10 or €20 million for Boniface could be a game-changer.
This isn’t even up for debate—Napoli should absolutely go for him. His stats are elite, and for some reason, he remains undervalued in the market. I can easily see him breaking records, even in the Premier League.
My Ideal Napoli Line up for the 2024-25 Season
The 3-5-2 Line Up
I’m quite biased towards the 3-5-2, as I believe it's the most balanced formation. It offers offensive power, defensive stability, and a well-structured midfield, especially when up against a three-man midfield. With this lineup, Napoli could at least secure European football next season, if not mount a serious title challenge.
Di Lorenzo as a right center-back adds value with his carrying and passing ability, and Buongiorno’s left foot helps in maintaining passing angles, something I’m really keen on.
Oliveira and Widmer are reliable wing-back options, while Lobotka and Anguissa offer midfield solidity. Darder’s creativity and flair can unlock defenses, and with Kvaratskhelia supporting Boniface up front, Napoli would have a formidable attack.
Personally, I believe this is the strongest lineup Napoli can field.
The 3-4-3 Line Up
Similar to the previous lineup, but with Darder replaced by Neres, whom Napoli acquired for €28M—a bargain given his skills and speed. Both wingers, Kvaratskhelia and Neres, have the ability to cut inside, creating overloads in midfield. This allows the wing-backs to overlap effectively, giving Boniface the space he needs to excel.
Which lineup do you believe is the strongest?
Conclusion
This data-driven approach provides practical solutions for addressing Napoli's squad needs, even for a club with such high expectations. The proposed lineup offers a balanced mix of experience and youthful energy, tailored to fit Conte’s tactical philosophy. While it may not feature high-profile signings, these players are selected based on their compatibility with the system and their potential for growth.
What do you think of this lineup? Who would you suggest using your data-driven approach to strengthen Napoli's squad?
Code and Implementation:
For those interested in the technical details, you can find the complete code for this project on my GitHub repository.
Call to Action:
If you're interested in football analytics or data science, I encourage you to check out the full project on GitHub. Feel free to experiment with the code, apply it to your favorite team or other struggling teams, and share your findings. Let's continue to push the boundaries of football analysis together!
Enjoy the content, and I'll see you on the dugout!
I think it is an interesting approach! Great analysis, but I don't know how realistic it would be, specially considering the ego of the coaches (especially Conte's...). Anyway, great work! Greetings from Brazil