The Heartbreak of Football: When xG Falls Short
A personal reflection on near-misses, what could have been, and the painful beauty of football's fine margins.
Introduction
The Champions League is back with its new format, and whether we like it or not, I think Zlatan summed it up perfectly for all of us. I'm genuinely excited to see how this plays out, with some mouth-watering fixtures and plenty of finals rematches on the cards. There’s a sense of anticipation, and even uncertainty, in the air with this new structure. Will it bring more drama? Or will it dilute the magic of knockout football? Only time will tell.
But for me, as an Inter fan, it's hard to move on from the heartbreak of the Champions League Final 2023. All eyes are on that rematch against Man City at the Etihad. The memories of that Champions League Final loss still sting. We outperformed them on the night with chances, but football, as always, had its cruel say. That night was about more than just a trophy. It was about pride, belief, and the desire to finally be recognized as Europe’s elite once again. Seeing that xG score still brings up the "what ifs."
It’ll be fascinating to see how we respond in this fixture, especially when that loss still feels so personal, so raw. Will we rise stronger, or will City remind us once again how fine the margins in football can be?
The 2022-23 Season
The 2022-23 season was indeed unusual, largely due to the Winter World Cup, which compressed the schedule and added unique challenges to the football calendar. As the season started earlier than usual, players were forced to navigate a condensed fixture list. In the weeks leading up to the World Cup, there was a sense of caution among some players, perhaps understandably, as they prioritized remaining fit for the tournament.
After the Champions League group stages wrapped up and the World Cup concluded in Qatar, many hailed it as one of the best tournaments ever. Messi’s triumph with Argentina solidified his status as one of football’s greatest, capping off a narrative that saw him claim the elusive trophy that had evaded him for years.
Once club football resumed, attention shifted back to Europe’s biggest prize, leading to a surprising yet thrilling Champions League final. The showdown featured two clubs with fierce local rivalries—Inter Milan and Manchester City—both known for their ability to frustrate their more celebrated neighbors, AC Milan and Manchester United. This rivalry subplot only added to the anticipation and intrigue of the final.
Manchester City dominated the 2022-23 season, completing a historic treble that mirrored and even surpassed Manchester United’s legendary 1999 achievement. Despite Arsenal’s valiant effort to claim the Premier League title, injuries and inexperience ultimately cost them, allowing City to surge ahead. In the FA Cup final, Manchester United tried to halt City’s charge, but Ilkay Gündogan’s brace sealed their fate, and City lifted yet another trophy.
City’s Champions League campaign was nothing short of extraordinary, comfortably overcoming giants like Bayern Munich and Real Madrid en route to the final. On paper, Inter Milan was considered the easier opponent. However, on the night, Inter gave City a much bigger challenge than expected. City narrowly scraped through with a 1-0 win, thanks to Rodri’s second-half goal. Inter, however, had two clear-cut chances but failed to convert them—showing once again how unpredictable football can be. Sometimes, despite putting in the performance, the margins are razor-thin, and City’s relentless season was capped off by this hard-fought victory.
Inter Milan's 2022-23 season was a rollercoaster of emotions. They suffered 12 Serie A defeats and finished third, far off the form they showed in 2021 when they won the Scudetto. The shadow of losing the title to their rivals AC Milan the previous season still loomed large, with a sluggish start and an early-season defeat to their city rivals. However, something clicked in the Champions League. In a critical set of back-to-back matches against Barcelona, Inter took four points, securing their qualification from the group thanks to the superior tiebreak.
Despite this success in Europe, their league form remained inconsistent, allowing Napoli to cruise towards the Scudetto. Inter experienced a tough period in March and April, taking just one point from five matches despite creating enough chances to earn at least 11 points, based on xG data. Football’s unpredictable nature showed its hand, but knockout football seemed to inspire Inter. They fought their way to the Champions League final, including a memorable win over AC Milan in the semi-finals, one of the season’s highlights for any Inter fan.
Though I entered the final with cautious hope, Inter exceeded my expectations. They gave City a tough fight, and on another day, they would have lifted the trophy. But that’s football—it’s a game of fine margins.
Despite the heartbreak of the Champions League final loss, the 2022-23 season gave me my best football memories. From Inter battling their way out of the group of death with that unforgettable game at Camp Nou, to witnessing my country’s extraordinary World Cup run. They fought through a tough group featuring Belgium, Croatia, and a rising Canada, and then went on to shock the world by knocking out Spain and Portugal, two football powerhouses. Those months, from October 2022 to June 2023, were a dream. But it all came crashing down after the Champions League final, where Inter gave it their all but fell just short.
The Champions League Final
How do you beat Man City? It’s a question that seems to come up every season. In my opinion, adopting a proactive approach like Klopp's is the most effective way to challenge them. This minimizes the role of luck, unlike more conservative strategies where you're forced to rely on fortune in both boxes. I believe a reactive approach can be counterproductive when facing a team like City
Klopp's approach is more of a controlled chaos, where City are given no space to impose their usual rhythm on the game. It's physically and mentally demanding, but that’s the level required to disrupt City's control. I’ve also admired Arteta's tactics against City in the 2023-24 season. He adopted similar principles by controlling space effectively, but did so with a more cautious approach, finding a balance between pressing and defensive structure.
I might be biased, but I’ve thoroughly enjoyed Inzaghi’s tactical approach against Man City. His use of a flexible back three allowed Inter to balance between giving City some space and being proactive in regaining possession in promising areas. Defensively, Inter remained compact, maintaining numerical superiority at the back, which seemed to leave Pep a bit unsettled. However, that same aggressiveness, while key to having the upper hand, proved costly when facing elite players. Stones’ (City’s number 5) ability to invert and disrupt the setup was a game-changing factor.
Watching Onana (24) playing almost as a 4th defender, helping Inter build from the back with superiority, was a joy to watch for me. His ability to find Brozović (77) with his precise passes and the way he constantly managed to connect with other teammates was a masterclass in distribution. Inter’s full-backs pushed wide, while their forwards dropped deeper at times, creating confusion for City’s defense. On that day, Inter looked like an elite team, tactically sharp and disciplined. Meanwhile, City focused on finding their midfielders in dangerous positions, constantly rotating, but it was Stones’ role in midfield that truly disrupted Inter’s approach and caused them the most problems.
No matter how you look at it, Inter were unlucky not to at least take the game into extra-time. At that point, it could have gone either way. From City’s perspective, though, you have to acknowledge that they made their own luck. Pep’s teams have often been on the receiving end of misfortune in the Champions League or have lost Premier League games in unexpected, even comical fashion (think of their infamous trips to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium). In some ways, they’ve earned the leeway they had that day. But as an Inter fan, that loss still stings.
This xG flow chart demonstrates how the dynamics of the game were significantly influenced by the game state, especially after City took the lead. The two notable spikes in Inter’s xG after conceding illustrate their determined efforts to push for an equalizer, but despite their best attempts, they couldn’t find the breakthrough. It serves as a reminder that, while Inter came close, they were ultimately unlucky not to get on the scoresheet in this tightly contested final.
This moment encapsulates the highs and lows of football. We had City on the ropes, and for a brief second, it felt like destiny was calling. But that’s football – it’s a game of moments, and sometimes those moments just don't go your way. Proud of our fight, but the pain of 'what could have been' will always linger.
The 2022-23 season felt like a poetic conclusion for two of the greatest figures in football: Pep Guardiola and Lionel Messi. Guardiola, often criticized for his inability to win the Champions League outside Barcelona, finally silenced his doubters by leading Manchester City to a historic treble. On the other hand, Messi, already regarded as one of the greatest of all time, cemented his legacy by "completing football" with his World Cup triumph for Argentina.
Both didn't need these achievements to prove their greatness, but football is often defined by narratives and debates. It was satisfying for the sport to give them the justice they deserved.
For me, it was bittersweet. Guardiola, someone I deeply admire, claimed his victory at the expense of my beloved Inter.
Conclusion
Ironically, both teams gained much from this Champions League final encounter. From City’s perspective, they fully earned their title as one of the best football projects in the world, and for Guardiola, it was a long-awaited triumph that gave him the space to continue developing his innovative style of play, something I truly admire about him.
Players like Kevin De Bruyne, who had experienced heartbreak in previous finals, finally lifted the trophy, rewriting their own legacies. Gundogan and others got the recognition they deserved for their contributions, and Rodri, in particular, was finally in the spotlight—years after showcasing his world-class talent but not always receiving the accolades. City’s victory marked a significant milestone for the club and several key figures, adding another layer of significance to Guardiola’s footballing philosophy.
For Inter, this heartbreaking loss instilled a sense of belief that they could compete with the best teams on the global stage. It further cemented their status as the top Italian team post-COVID, even if their performances in the league didn’t always reflect that dominance. The final also set the tone for their renewed ambition in Serie A, with the supporters rallying behind the goal of winning their 20th Scudetto and securing the coveted second star on their jerseys. This motivation fueled their campaign, and they ultimately achieved that milestone in spectacular fashion, showcasing their superiority over domestic rivals and proving they belong among Europe’s elite.
Inter’s 2022-23 season taught me the value of trusting the process and focusing on consistent performances rather than fixating solely on outcomes or trophies. It's about patience—if you do the right things over time, your moment will come. Manchester City exemplified this under Pep Guardiola, building a project over years before finally achieving their crowning glory. Similarly, it’s about staying committed to your principles, knowing that the results will follow in due course.
Call to Action
Think back to a recent memory where you felt intense heartbreak or joy. Now, try analyzing it through the lens of data.
How do the numbers or facts align with the emotions you experienced? Reflect on your own principles—whether it's about patience, consistency, or unexpected outcomes—and see how they match up with the reality of that moment. Share your thoughts and insights with me!
I think Brentford approach against Manchester City in the last weekend was perfect in the first 30 minutes, and so Pep did as he said... the most important thing, in my opinion is to don't wast any kind of good opportunity. Because if you do, they will crash you right after!
Great work mate! Best from Brazil,
Pedro